Despite bond-friendly news with the unresolved US/China trade relations and the ongoing government shutdown, rates actually touched 2019 highs midweek — this as stocks continue to move higher.

Home loan rates have been on the rise ever since the last Jobs Report and Fed Speech back on Friday Jan 4th. Next week we are seeing another Jobs Report and Fed Meeting — more on those big events below.

The Housing market showed a surprising decline in Existing Home Sales in December. Despite the poor reading to finish the year, 2019 is setting up to be a good year. Historically low home rates, a slowing rate of home price increases along with the highest wage gains in a decade should see to that.

This could be a very important week for the financial markets and home loan rates.

The FOMC (Fed) meeting kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the monetary policy statement. The Fed will not hike the short-term Fed Funds Rate, but what they say in the statement could influence the next directional move for home loan rates.

The last time the Fed spoke back on January 4th, Stocks and rates both moved higher and have been doing so ever since. Those shopping for a home would be wise to follow what the Fed says on Wednesday.

Another very real threat to rates will be the January ADP Private Payrolls Report and Jobs Report. The last Jobs Report was a spectacular reading and home loan rates moved higher as a result.

Throw in a whopping $113 billion in new Bond supply from the Treasury along with the heart of corporate earnings season and it sets the markets up for a very important week for rates.

  • Housing data will come from Tuesday’s S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index followed by Pending Home Sales on Wednesday.
  • Consumer Confidence will be delivered on Tuesday with Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
  • Manufacturing data comes from Thursday’s Chicago PMI and Friday’s ISM National Manufacturing Index.
  • Key labor market data will be released on Wednesday with ADP Private Payrolls and Friday’s government Jobs Report.

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